Valero Texas Open Betting Preview: Best Outrights, Props & Finishing Position Picks at TPC San Antonio

The Texas Hill Country welcomes the PGA TOUR this week for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course, a layout that has long favored elite ball-strikers, accurate drivers, and those who can survive the wind and avoid trouble.

A week before the Masters, this event features a unique blend of motivated top-tier talent and under-the-radar players looking to punch a last-minute ticket to Augusta. Whether you're backing past champions, betting hot hands, or looking for value plays on players trending in the right direction, this course requires a specific profile: long iron consistency, par-4 scoring, par-5 aggression, and bogey avoidance.

Let’s dive into this week’s best bets, broken down by Outrights, Finishing Position Props, First-Round Leader Picks, and Tournament Matchups.

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Best Outright Winner Bets

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Daniel Berger (+3500)

It’s been a quiet return, but Berger is back in form with five straight top-25 finishes and a statistical profile that screams TPC San Antonio: 5th in Total Driving, 2nd in Scrambling from the Rough, and strong SG: Tee-to-Green trends. He excels in wind, thrives on tough courses, and feels like the best value outright in a wide-open field.

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Corey Conners (+1600)

Conners is a two-time winner here (2019, 2023), and he’s never finished worse than T34 at this track. In 24 rounds at TPC San Antonio, 20 have been at par or better. His elite ball-striking is tailor-made for the Oaks Course, making him an automatic play—even at a shorter number.

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Jordan Spieth (+2200)

A proven winner in Texas, Spieth took this event in 2021 and has four top-10 finishes here. He’s fresh off his best approach performance in over two years and thrives when returning to familiar venues that suit his eye. Always dangerous on home soil.

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Keegan Bradley (+2800)

If Corey Conners is the model for success here, Bradley is the discount version. He’s gained in ball-striking in every start in 2025 and has two career top-10s at this event. TPC San Antonio rewards accuracy and control off the tee—both strengths for Bradley.

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Top Finishing Position Bets

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Top 5 Finishes

• Corey Conners (+350) – Two-time champ and course horse.
• Jordan Spieth (+400) – Trending ball-striking + Texas narrative.
• Daniel Berger (+650) – All stats say he’s ready to contend.

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Top 10 Finishes

• Denny McCarthy (+300) – Elite putter, strong par-4 scorer, and playoff runner-up here last year.
• Patrick Cantlay (+250) – First appearance here, but ranks 3rd in GIR % and top-20 in almost every key stat.
• Alex Smalley (+500) – Quietly having a strong season with six top-20s in last nine starts.
• Tom Hoge (+600) – No. 3 in SG: Approach this week and plenty of success on tough layouts.

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Top 20 Finishes

• Gary Woodland (+250) – Top-10 finishes here in 2021 and 2022. Trending well.
• Joel Dahmen (+450) – Elite ball-striking + solid recent form in Texas.
• Victor Perez (+300) – Three straight top-25s and ranks 19th in Round 1 scoring average.
• Sam Stevens (+280) – Runner-up here last year, followed up with T14 in 2024.

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First-Round Leader Picks

We’re looking for elite approach numbers and hot putters who can get out to a fast start on Thursday.

• Bud Cauley (+6600) – Arguably the hottest player in the field with recent gains in approach and putting.
• Tom Hoge (+8000) – Loves a hot start and has posted low rounds at TPC San Antonio.
• Jordan Spieth (+4000) – Started hot during his 2021 win and comes in hot after a strong approach week.
• Alex Smalley (+7000) – Reliable tee-to-green player. If the putter shows up, he can lead early.

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Tournament Matchups & Props

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Props

• Akshay Bhatia – Round 1 Score Under 70.5 (-125)
  Bhatia led the field in SG: Off the Tee and Approach last year and ranks 7th in birdie average. He opened with a 63 last year. Let’s back him to start strong again.
• Patrick Cantlay – Top 20 Finish (-125)
  13th in SG: Total, 3rd in GIR %, 8th in Birdie Average, and elite scoring metrics across the board. Lock him in for a steady performance.

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Matchups

• Sam Stevens over J.T. Poston – Round 1 (-110)
  Stevens has back-to-back strong finishes here, while Poston has struggled in Round 1s and lacks upside lately.
• Tom Hoge over Eric Cole – Full Tournament (+105)
  Cole struggles with long courses and off the tee. Hoge’s iron game is elite, and he’s proven at this venue.

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Longshot Specials

If you're into deeper dart throws, here are some live ones:

• Alex Smalley (Outright +7500 / FRL +7000)
• Tom Hoge (Outright +10000 / FRL +8000)
• Justin Rose FRL (+8000)
• Joel Dahmen – Top 20 (+450)
• Gary Woodland – Top 20 (+250)

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Betting Card Recap

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Outrights

• Daniel Berger (+3500)
• Corey Conners (+1600)
• Jordan Spieth (+2200)
• Keegan Bradley (+2800)

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Top 5

• Corey Conners (+350)
• Jordan Spieth (+400)
• Daniel Berger (+650)

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Top 10

• Denny McCarthy (+300)
• Patrick Cantlay (+250)
• Alex Smalley (+500)
• Tom Hoge (+600)

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Top 20

• Gary Woodland (+250)
• Joel Dahmen (+450)
• Victor Perez (+300)
• Sam Stevens (+280)
• Patrick Cantlay (-125)

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First Round Leader

• Bud Cauley (+6600)
• Tom Hoge (+8000)
• Jordan Spieth (+4000)
• Alex Smalley (+7000)

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Props / Matchups

• Akshay Bhatia Round 1 Score Under 70.5 (-125)
• Sam Stevens over J.T. Poston (R1) (-110)
• Tom Hoge over Eric Cole (FT) (+105)

One & Done Pick

Daniel Berger – Trending form, strong course fit, and not overly chalky.

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