RBC Heritage 2025: Best Bets, Bold Picks, and the Players to Watch at Harbour Town

The Masters hangover is real—but Harbour Town waits for no one.

Just 120 miles southeast of Augusta National, the PGA Tour hits Hilton Head Island for the 57th RBC Heritage Presented by Boeing, a $20 million signature event loaded with world-class talent and compelling betting opportunities. While Rory McIlroy jets home to Northern Ireland after securing his long-awaited Masters victory and career Grand Slam, many of the PGA Tour’s finest are making the short trip to South Carolina for what may be the most tactical test on the calendar.

If Augusta is about poetry, Harbour Town is about precision. And for sharp bettors, this event is about opportunity.

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🎯 What Makes Harbour Town Unique?

Harbour Town Golf Links is no ordinary stop on Tour. This Pete Dye design is just 7,099 yards, plays to a par 71, and features some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour—roughly 3,700 sq. ft. (about half the Tour average). It demands shot-shaping, accuracy off the tee, exceptional iron play, and creative short-game work. Bombers don’t bomb here. Instead, elite tacticians shine.

Key skill sets for success:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Good Drive %
• Strokes Gained on Pete Dye Courses
• Greens in Regulation %
• Short Game

Past champions like Jim Furyk, CT Pan, Stewart Cink, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Webb Simpson exemplify this profile: smart, strategic ball-strikers who thrive in tight, technical environments.

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🔥 Who's Hot, Who Fits, and Who We’re Betting

Let’s break it down by category and dive deep into the best values for outright wins, top placements, and first-round leader bets.

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🏆 OUTRIGHT WINNERS

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🏌️‍♂️ Patrick Cantlay (+2000)

Let’s not overthink this. Cantlay is a Harbour Town monster: 3rd (2024), 3rd (2023), 2nd (2022), 3rd (2019), and 7th (2018). He’s second only to Scheffler in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 36 rounds here (+2.30 per round) and ranks:

• 6th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds
• 9th in SG: Pete Dye courses
• 10th in GIR %

He’s also due. No wins since 2022, but he’s trending and loves this layout. The price is right.

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🎯 Collin Morikawa (+1200)

The best iron player on Earth (1st in SG: Approach over 24 rounds) and 2nd in overall SG on Tour. If there’s a course that rewards elite ball-striking and punishes mediocre putting, it’s this one—and Collin is heating up with a runner-up and multiple top-10s already in 2025.

He also ranks:

• 2nd in Good Drive %
• 3rd in GIR %
• Top 5 in SG: Total across correlated courses (Waialae, Pebble, Colonial, etc.)

This is the week. If he rolls in a few putts, he wins.

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🔥 Daniel Berger (+5000)

Back from injury and playing with the swagger of old. Seven straight top-30s, gaining strokes in all major categories, and quietly 5th in SG: Total on Pete Dye designs. He’s finished:

• T3, T13, and T21 in his last 3 starts at Harbour Town
• 3rd in Fairways Gained
• 13th in GIR %
• 18th in Scrambling

If you’re fading bombers, Berger’s your guy. The value here is tremendous.

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🧨 Bud Cauley (+8000)

Don’t blink—Cauley is surging. He’s finished T6 or better in three straight starts, including the Players and Valspar. In the last 36 rounds, he’s:

• 4th in SG: Tee to Green
• 6th in Hole Proximity (175-200 yards)
• 10th in GIR %

He's also gained in SG: Ball Striking and Short Game over that span. If this renaissance continues, 80/1 is a lottery ticket worth scratching.

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🔝 TOP 5 FINISHES

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Corey Conners (+210)

Conners is playing the best golf of his career—period. Five top-10s in 10 starts this season. No. 1 in GIR Gained over the last 36 rounds, top-20 in proximity from 125–200 yards, and elite on Par 4s from 400–450 yards (9th). All of this screams Harbour Town.

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Shane Lowry (+2200 outright, +400 Top 5)

He’s tired of talking about Rory. Now, he wants his moment. Lowry is 4th in SG: Approach, 8th in SG: Around the Green, and plays his best golf on technical setups. Three top-10s in his last six trips to Harbour Town, and five top-20s already this season.

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🔟 TOP 10 FINISHES

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Russell Henley (+2500 outright, +250 Top 10)

Henley ranks:

• 3rd in Good Drive %
• 1st in GIR %
• Top 10 in SG: Short Game

He’s in excellent form, and this setup rewards his elite accuracy and putting. Don’t sleep on him for a DFS pivot or parlay value.

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Justin Thomas (+1800 outright, +200 Top 10)

JT has quietly turned a corner. Gained strokes putting in 7 of 9 starts, and fired a course-record 62 at the Players. Finished T5 here last year and has the creativity and iron play to go low again.

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🎯 TOP 20 FINISHES (Great Parlay Legs)

• Sepp Straka (+175): No. 1 in SG: Total over the last 36 rounds, and two top-5s in last 3 RBCs. Precise, consistent, and thriving.
• Denny McCarthy (+250): 7th in putting, 9th in scrambling. T28 here last year, and has 5 top-20s in his last 7 starts.
• Lucas Glover (+275): No. 1 in Fairways Gained, 6th in SG: Approach. Multiple top-20s at Harbour Town and correlated courses.
• Michael Kim (+320): A flyer with form—6th, 4th, 13th earlier this year. Top 10 in SG: Tee to Green. Trending up fast.

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🧨 FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS

• Aaron Rai (+4500) – Leads the field in Good Drive %, great early-week scorer.
• Tom Hoge (+6000) – Elite with mid-irons, strong recent form with three top-15s.
• JT Poston (+5000) – Historically fast starter, 3rd in SG: Total at Harbour Town.
• Davis Thompson (+5500) – Birdie-maker with Bermuda upside. First win came at John Deere, another positional course

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📝 Final Thoughts

The RBC Heritage is a ball-striker’s dream and a bettor’s playground. While Scheffler rightfully sits as favorite, this isn’t Augusta—it’s a thinker’s course. Morikawa, Cantlay, Berger, and others are primed to pounce. Don’t overlook course history, short-game strength, or Pete Dye proficiency.

Want to win this week? Think less about power, and more about precision.

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Because at Harbour Town, the tortoise beats the hare—every single time.

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