2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Why These Golfers Can Finish in the Top 20

This week, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational (API)—one of the more challenging stops on the schedule. With oversized Bermuda greens, thick ryegrass rough, and more than 80 bunkers, the course is a true test of precision and resilience. Add in potential wind conditions, as seen in 2020 and 2022, and the difficulty only increases.

Since Rory McIlroy’s 2018 victory at 18-under par, the winning scores at Bay Hill have fluctuated, often falling around single digits under par—highlighting just how demanding the course can be. With this in mind, I’ve identified three players I believe have a strong chance to finish in the Top 20 this week.

1. Justin Thomas (25-1) – Trending Upward

It's rare to see Justin Thomas flying under the radar, but with his last victory coming at the 2022 PGA Championship, some bettors may be hesitant. However, his game is showing clear signs of improvement, making him a strong pick for a Top 20 finish at Bay Hill.

• Strong Course Correlation: His Southern Hills win in 2022 is significant, as it shares characteristics with Bay Hill—demanding iron play, scrambling, and ball striking.
• Recent Form: Thomas has two consecutive Top-10 finishes coming into this week and three overall in the young season.
• Key Metrics: Over the last 36 rounds, Thomas ranks:
  • 3rd in SG: Approach (critical for navigating Bay Hill’s greens)
  • 7th in performance on 450-500 yard Par 4s (key for success at this course)
• Course History: His finishes at Bay Hill have progressively improved: 49th → 21st → 12th. If that trend continues, he’s well-positioned for a Top 20 finish—or better.

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2. Maverick McNealy (56-1) – Underrated and in Form

Maverick McNealy has been quietly putting together a solid season, and his recent play suggests he could be a strong dark horse candidate for a high finish at Bay Hill.

• Recent Results: Like Thomas, McNealy has three Top-10 finishes this season, including two consecutive heading into this event.
• Elite Ball Striking: Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks:
  • 13th in SG: Approach (a crucial stat for Bay Hill’s approach-heavy layout)
  • 19th in Greens in Regulation Gained (ensuring birdie opportunities)
  • 17th in Proximity from 200+ yards (important given Bay Hill’s longer approaches)
• Bermudagrass Advantage: McNealy is 7th in SG: Putting on Bermuda, meaning he’ll have an edge on these greens compared to many in the field.

While he’s yet to truly break through on Tour, his skill set aligns well with what’s needed at Bay Hill, and his odds make him a great value play for a Top 20 finish.

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3. Patrick Cantlay (30-1) – Elite Ball Striker, Strong Value

At 30-1 odds, Patrick Cantlay presents one of the best values in the field—not just for a Top 20 finish, but potentially a run at the title.

• Iron Play Masterclass: Cantlay ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation percentage (76.39%), which is an invaluable skill at a course where hitting greens is a challenge.
• Red-Hot Putting: He is currently 6th in putting average (1.655), allowing him to capitalize on the greens better than most in this field.
• Birdie Machine: His 5.56 birdies per round is the 2nd-best mark on Tour this season, meaning he has the firepower to keep pace even if Bay Hill plays difficult.

Cantlay’s ability to combine elite iron play with strong putting makes him a prime candidate for a Top 20 finish, if not an outright contender for the title.

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Final Thoughts: Why These Three Golfers Stand Out

Bay Hill demands elite iron play, scrambling ability, and consistency on Bermuda greens. Thomas, McNealy, and Cantlay all check those boxes, making them strong bets to finish inside the Top 20 this week.

• Thomas is on the rise, with his approach play and Bay Hill history trending in the right direction.
• McNealy is a hidden gem with impressive ball striking and putting stats on Bermuda.
• Cantlay offers high upside at long odds, with one of the best iron games on Tour and a hot putter to match.

While Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland will be among the favorites, these three players provide value and strong statistical backing for Top 20 finishes at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.