This week, the Tour lands in Los Angeles for one of the biggest non-major events of the year: The Genesis Invitational at Riviera C.C. The event has been raved about by players for decades, but is now considered a Signature Event with the PGA Tour, which means the purse is $20 million and the winner will collect nearly $3.5 million.
There are plenty of story lines and things to watch this week; notably the return of Tiger Woods. Tiger has not teed it up since The Masters last year when his foot injury ended his season due to surgery. This week, he returns to action and he'll look a little different. It's not "the walk" or his physical attributes, but his fashion. Nike and Tiger Woods parted ways recently and on Monday, a new era began. Sun Day Red is Tiger's new clothing line, in partnership with TaylorMade Golf. This week, he will debut some of the apparel on the course.
With a loaded field at The Genesis and an incredibly difficult course, picking the winner isn't easy. Let's go through some notes about the trends and the course before getting to the picks of the week.
- 14 of the last 16 winners have at least three previous PGA Tour wins
- 16 of the last 18 winners have played in at least 4 previous Genesis Invitationals
- 14 of the last 18 winners have finished 12th or better in a previous Genesis Invitational.
- 18 of the last 22 winners finished 35th or better in their last start before the Genesis.
- 14 of the last 17 winners played at Pebble Beach or TPC Scottsdale in their last start
- 14 of the last 16 winners were age 29 or older
- 28 of the last 31 winners have finished 22nd or better at The Masters
So, who fits that description?
Riviera Country Club is filled with uneven lies, deep bunkers, and doglegs. The tight driving corridors, Kikuyu rough and fast Poa greens have subtle undulations - all of which make this a strategic "thinkers" golf course. Short game matters at Riviera, as much as it does at a place like Augusta National. The track rewards players who are creative shot shapers and shot makers.
Scottie Scheffler (+750) -- 4 straight Top 30s at Riviera. Scottie comes in with back to back top 10s this year. He's virtually a lock to place in the Top 25 at this point. He can win every week on Tour. But I don't think it's this week.
Rory McIlroy (+850) -- This seems like a course that Rory should excel. He drives the ball as good as anyone on Tour and has incredible short game. In 7 trips, he has 6 made cuts and 3 Top 10s. Like Scottie, Rory can win every week he plays. But I think think it's this week.
Viktor Hovland (+1200) -- Hovland has good history here. 3 trips, 3 made cuts, 2 top 5's. He withdrew from the WMPO last week and his last tournament, he placed 58th. He doesn't seem to be clicking on all cylinders yet. I'm avoiding Hovland in DFS and outright bets this week.
Xander Schauffele (+1400) -- Like Hovland, Xander withdrew from the WMPO last week. Schauffele has never missed a cut at Riviera. He only has one top 10 here, but I think he's a good option this week to bet a Top 20 finish. He's in good form and coming off a week of rest. He should fare well.
Max Homa (+1600) -- Max Homa will probably have the highest ownership this week in DFS lineups. He's from Los Angeles and vocal about how much he loves this course and event. In the last 4 trips here, his finishes are: 2, 10, 1, and 5. Horse for the course! He missed the cut last week in Phoenix, but I chalk that up to looking ahead to this week. I'll be placing a Top 10 bet on Max Homa.
Patrick Cantlay (+1800) -- Like Homa, Cantlay is another guy who loves Riviera. He's never missed a cut here and has a few Top 10s. The California born Cantlay, loves the West Coast swing on Tour. I think he's got as good of a chance as any this week.
Justin Thomas (+2000) -- If I had to give you two players to pick this week, Justin Thomas is one of them. After a slow 2023, JT is firing on all cylinders right now. He's motivated and by the way, he's playing with his buddy Tiger Woods in the first two rounds this week. Good vibes, good golf. JT has 3 top 10s here and is coming into the event with 4 Top 12s in his last 4 tournaments. I'm on JT!
Collin Morikawa (+2000) -- My other pick for the week is Collin Morikawa. Top 6s in his last two trips. He has the game to navigate the course. He's a thinker and creative. He's in good form and had a week of rest last week.
Adam Scott (+3500) -- Don't overthink it. 8 trips, 4 top 10s with a win. His recent form is fantastic. Scotty is a thinker and elite ball striker. He also fits the model of the trends for winning here.
Long Shots to Win, Good Top 25 Options
- Matt Kuchar
- Will Zalatoris
- Hideki Matsuyama
