Last week, we were close to nailing the winner. Will Zalatoris, one of our dark horses, was in the mix and came up just short. Hideki Matsuyama nearly matched the course record at Riviera on Sunday, proving to be just a bit too much for Zalatoris to overcome. Now, the Tour heads east for the Florida swing. But first, we land at The Mexico Open at Vidanta, which is back for the third year in a row. The field is not as star studded as you’ll find at a major or Signature Event, but these are the weeks that can catapult someone that’s seemingly unknown to the public… for now.
Before we get to the picks, you should know that Vidanta is currently the least predictive (out of 44) annual courses on Tour. Driving Distance is a premium here (3rd longest avg. on tour and 80% of tee shots are with Driver). The rough is virtually non-penal at 1.5”. The average approach is 190 yards – one of the longest on Tour. Thanks to firm greens and difficult pin locations, overall proximity to the hole is nearly 44 feet. For contrast, the Tour average is 36.6 feet. Add in some wind and we’re ready! Let’s see how we do!
Tony Finau (+600) – Without a doubt, Finau is far and away the favorite this week. He has the best career resume of anyone in the field and he’s long off the tee. Not to mention, in his two appearances at this event, he’s finished 1st and 2nd. His DFS price is outrageous this week, but he’s the closest thing you’ll get to a sure thing this week – which is why his odds are so low. Low risk, low reward.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+1800) – The Dane arrives in Mexico for the 2nd time (33rd in 2023) and is coming off some good recent form (39, 31, 2, 7, and 25). He will be a popular pick in many golf pools this week, but I would fade him as a pick to win. I don’t think he’s got the short game to win this one.
Thorbjorn Olesen (+2500) – This week, Olesen received a special invite to play in The Masters. Good vibes bring good things. He’s never played in Mexico before, but he has finished 1st, 21st and 8th in his last three starts. He’s a guy I’d roster in DFS and maybe sprinkle for a win or Top 10.
Patrick Rodgers (+3000) – Rodgers has played here twice and finished 10th both times.
Brandon Wu (+3300) – Wu has played here twice and finished 3rd and 2nd. I like that!
Cameron Champ – Has great history here (8th and 6th), but man oh man is he struggling to find form right now. 4 straight missed cuts coming into this week.
Taylor Pendrith – Top 15 in his last 7 starts. Very long off the tee and is elite with long irons, which are paramount for the long approaches here at Vidanta.
