Preface: Last week, before the weather shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I laid out some of my favorite picks of the week. Moving forward, I’ll post my picks from a few categories: Vegas favorites, Horses for the Course, players in good form, or some long shots to hit a Top 25 or better.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open (WMPO), held at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale, provides a unique challenge each year. The challenge not only comes from the desert-style course – narrow fairways, strategically placed bunkers, and risk-reward decisions that players have to make – but from the environment. While most events are fairly quiet and respectful, the WMPO is loud, rowdy and boozy. Golfers need to relish in the energy to play well this week.
Let’s get to the picks for the week!
· Scottie Scheffler (+500) – Let’s make this really easy… 4 trips to the Stadium Course… 3 Top 10s and 2 wins. The WMPO catapulted Scheffler into another dimension with his win here in 2022. Since winning, he hasn’t looked back. While the odds are quite low in terms of picking one player to win, Scottie is about as good as anyone could be and I wouldn’t just bypass him this week.
· Justin Thomas (+1000) – JT has played 9 consecutive years and has 7 made cuts. In the last 5 years, his results are fantastic: 4th, 8th, 13th, 3rd, 3rd. He’s coming into the week with a Top 6’s in his last 3 events. While Scheffler may be THE horse for the course, I’d take a little greater odds on JT. It seems he’s knocking on the door and he likes the spotlight and energy from the crowd.
· Max Homa (+1600) – I’m not playing Max in DFS lineups or as a pick to win. The Los Angeles native will seemingly be looking forward to the Genesis next week at Riviera where he is very well suited. Max has played the WMPO 5 times and has made the cut each time, but only two times did he crack the Top 25. If I was going to lay a bet on Max this week, it would be for a Top 20 (-110 at DraftKings).
*Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland were two pre-tourney favorites, but both opted to withdraw and prepare for next week’s Signature Event, hosted by Tiger Woods, The Genesis Open.
· Hideki Matsuyama (+4000) – Hideki has 9 made cuts in his last 10 trips to the WMPO and the 1 lone poor result was a WD due to injury. Hideki has 2 wins, 5 Top 10s, and 8 Top 30s. While his current form isn’t spectacular, I’m not ignoring the history here. I’m actually surprised he’s as high as 40:1 odds to win.
· Rickie Fowler (+5500) – I know, I know… I’ve heard all of the complaints about Rickie. But I like his game and his history here. In 10 tries, he has 7 made cuts, including one win, 2nd, 4th, 10th and 11th. His form is OK right now. Worth a dart for a Top 25 or even a win.
*Two additional guys with less history, but really sound results: Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth. It doesn’t feel like a Spieth win is coming this week, but I could see Sungjae get hot here.
· Brian Harman – 8 made cuts in 9 tries, good current form. I’d bet him to make the cut at any book you can find it at.
· Adam Hadwin – Loves the West Coast swing on Tour. Same notes as Harman. He’s a cut making machine here.
· Billy Horschel – Has struggled as of late, but maybe the course will bring good vibes his way. In the last 10 trips, he has 9 made cuts and nearly half were Top 25s.
· Charley Hoffman – Similarly to Horschel, Hoffman is a cut making machine here. Maybe it’s because he has been a Waste Management sponsored player for what feels like forever? Not great as of late, but 9 made cuts in his last 10 trips.
*I would not bet any of these four to win, but I like them to make the cut or get a Top 40.
