Week 1 of college football is here, and with it comes a fresh slate of opportunities to make some savvy bets. Each pick below is geared toward maximizing value, with a focus on taking calculated risks where the numbers and context align. Here’s a breakdown of the best bets for the opening week of the season, including when it might be best to pass on a wager if the line moves too far.
Minnesota is up against North Carolina, a team that has received some betting momentum over the weekend. However, the confidence in the Tar Heels might be misplaced. While North Carolina has had strong quarterback play in recent years with Sam Howell and Drake Maye, this year’s quarterback situation is less certain unless Mack Brown has unearthed another future NFL talent in Max Johnson or Conner Harrell. Minnesota, on the other hand, seems to have upgraded at quarterback, giving them a legitimate shot to upset the Tar Heels, despite North Carolina’s superior overall talent.
Worst line to bet: -105
Houston’s new head coach, Willie Fritz, comes from a successful run at Tulane, and while his teams may lean more toward the run, both Houston and Tulane had similar pace numbers last season. UNLV, however, is known for its fast play, ranking 28th in pace and 21st in drives per game last year. Although Houston may play slower under Fritz, improved efficiency could still push the total score into the 60s if everything aligns as expected.
Worst line to bet: Over 56.5 (-110)
Troy opened as a significant favorite, with the line initially set around -12 before Nevada’s recent performance against SMU. While Nevada showed they’re improved from last season, the adjustment to this line feels too drastic based on one game. According to my calculations, Troy should still be favored by more than 10 points, making this a prime opportunity to sell high on Nevada.
Worst line to bet: Troy -9.5 (-110)
South Alabama is favored by 5.5 points, but my analysis suggests they should be favored by more, closer to 7.5 points. North Texas has suffered a significant loss on defense due to an injury in fall camp, weakening their chances. While South Alabama is under new leadership, the promotion of offensive coordinator Major Applewhite provides continuity, making them a solid bet this week.
Worst line to bet: South Alabama -6.5 (-110)
The showdown between Florida and Miami is one of the most anticipated games of the weekend. Both teams are under pressure, with their coaches needing a strong start to the season. While Miami might have a slight edge on paper, my analysis suggests Florida should be a slight favorite. With some sportsbooks already moving the line from +3 to +2.5, the current odds provide decent value.
Worst line to bet: Florida +3 (-115) or moneyline +105
This pick was added later in the betting process due to some money moving in favor of Charlotte earlier in the day. As the line approached a point where betting on James Madison became appealing, this pick made the cut.
Worst line to bet: James Madison -7 (-110)
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