Had the Tigers played anyone else, it may have been a different story due to the transfers, but Kentucky hasn’t proven enough to validate taking the points.
Even though both teams have essentially had a month off, Clemson has been the better team. It won its last four games and is coming in with some confidence.
A shorthanded Tigers team is still better than Kentucky at full strength, and that’s the exact situation we have here.
I expect Davis to have a big presence, and I expect the Wildcats' run defense to do its best to stop Mafah and Shipley. In the end, though, I don’t foresee it being enough.
Clemson’s execution is so much better, and even though it’s missing players on defense, the structure is still there. With how ineffective Kentucky was to end the season, I don’t see the Cats doing much in this bowl game.
I really don't see how either of these offenses are going to move the ball given how many of their key players are out for this game.
For the Irish, they have a quarterback who hasn't even taken 10 snaps this season, throwing to receivers who haven't even seen 20 targets. They'll have a backup running back carrying the ball behind an offensive line with four of the five starters gone against an Oregon State front seven that's basically at full strength.
For the Beavers, they're going to be without their starting running back and three offensive linemen for a team that relies heavily on the ground game. Gulbranson does at least have experience at quarterback, but given what we saw last season, I highly doubt he's going to be effective in this game.
With both offenses being incredibly limited and both defenses having most of their production available, I like the value on under 41.5 points.
I turned my head when I saw that Iowa State was favored by 10.5 points at most major sportsbooks. Memphis had a strong season, but that line shows a lot of respect for a 7-5 team.
However, the Tigers' defensive numbers are a blaring warning sign. They gave up 30-plus points more often than not and got shredded by the likes of North Texas and South Florida. There's also no reason to think Iowa State won't be motivated to play in this game. The Cyclones weren't expected to win the Big 12 or anything like that, so the Liberty Bowl won't be disappointing for them.
Additionally, the Cyclones' best offensive players are freshmen who will want to continue to improve, especially after their impressive road victory over Kansas State to end the regular season.
Ultimately, I just can't see this Memphis defense offering much resistance against Iowa State's offense, so take the Cyclones to cover the 10.5-point spread.
On paper, Missouri is missing very little in this game and theoretically playing for more than Ohio State. A win would give the Tigers just their fourth 11-win season since 1901, and clearly, head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s team understands the stakes.
Almost all the Tigers starters are expected to suit up with just two — Ty’Ron Hopper and Ennis Rakestraw — set to miss the game due to injury. However, those are two key pieces to a Missouri defense that showed some leaks throughout the season and has a tough task against the Buckeyes' explosive offense.
Taking the Buckeyes to cover the spread is risky business given their roster attrition. Ryan Day’s program lost two starters on offense to the portal — quarterback Kyle McCord, who landed at Syracuse, and receiver Julian Fleming, who’s expected to end up at Penn State.
But there’s been a collective shrug in Columbus about the loss of McCord, who never quite looked like the guy under center, and the way Brian Hartline’s recruited receivers to the scarlet and grey, there’s plenty of five-star recruits waiting in the wings to replace Fleming.
The more immediate concern is how much NFL Draft talent the Buckeyes possess, but surprisingly the program has only seen one player confirm he won’t be taking the field, RB Miyan Williams, who had little impact this season. However, potential top-three pick Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been practicing at the Cotton Bowl and isn’t expected to play.
So while not having Harrison Jr. out there hurts, if the rest of the Buckeyes take the field then Day’s squad still has the advantage because of their depth. It’s already been confirmed Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Denzel Burke, Cade Stover, Donovan Jackson, Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Williams, and Jordan Hancock — all likely NFL Draft picks if they declare — will be playing.
The real question is how competent will Devin Brown be stepping in for McCord. Since Day became co-offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes in 2017, he’s gotten the most out of whoever is starting at QB.
McCord had the team scoring just 32.8 per game — 32nd in the country — and the Buckeyes still managed to rank 16th in EPA per play and eighth in EPA per pass. So while Brown, a former Top 50 recruit, is inexperienced, Day has been impressed with him in bowl practices and the infrastructure around him should allow him to get after this Missouri defense.
“The first thing you notice is his command of the huddle, his command of the offense,” Day said. “He's done a nice job of that. He has a charisma about him that I think the guys appreciate.”
The Tigers rank just 66th in EPA per play on defense and 94th in EPA per pass, and defensive coordinator Blake Baker will be without his tone-setting linebacker, Hopper, and second-best cornerback, Rakestraw. That sets Brown up nicely to utilize Egbuka, Henderson, and Stover, each a potential top prospect at their position in the NFL Draft, to take advantage of Missouri in the passing game.
With the Buckeyes expected to have most of their defensive starters too, they should be able to slow this explosive Missouri offense enough to cover. While the Tigers are 10th in EPA per play, 10th in EPA per pass, and 45th in EPA per rush, Jim Knowles' defense has been shutting teams down this season.
Ohio State has held teams to just 11 points per game and 259.9 total ypg. Knowles’ unit is also seventh in EPA per play, sixth in EPA per pass, and 16th in EPA per rush. The defenses are what will make the difference.
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