Picks & Odds: The Unpredictable Majesty of TPC Sawgrass and The PLAYERS Championship
Nestled in the heart of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, TPC Sawgrass stands as a colossus in the world of golf, home to The PLAYERS Championship, often dubbed the "fifth major" by enthusiasts and professionals alike. Crafted by the legendary architect Pete Dye, this course has been a crucible of competition for over four decades, challenging players with its infamous Island Green on the 17th hole and water hazards on nearly every turn. Notoriously unpredictable, the course offers no favors, with its layout ensuring that no two consecutive holes play in the same direction, a feature that compounds the challenge posed by the shifting winds since the event's move to March in 2019.
The course's fickle nature is mirrored in the performance of the world's top golfers, where history and nationality have surprising roles to play. No English-born player has claimed victory at The PLAYERS, and previous course performance seems to offer little advantage, underscoring the unpredictable nature of this prestigious tournament. As Tiger Woods steps back, deferring his participation, the question looms large: who can tame the beast that is TPC Sawgrass?
Among the favorites, Scottie Scheffler shines as the world's top golfer, yet even his impressive track record is tested by the capricious nature of Sawgrass. Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland also enter the fray, each with their own history and hopes at this legendary course. As speculation swirls, the discussion opens up to a wider field, including dark horses and underdogs, all aiming to leave their mark on the storied greens of TPC Sawgrass. Amidst the unpredictability, one thing remains certain: The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass continues to be a paramount test of skill, strategy, and adaptability in the world of golf, captivating audiences and challenging players in equal measure.
The course has defense virtually everywhere, with water in play on 17 holes. No two consecutive holes play in the same direction. For a long time, the tournament was played in May. Since 2019, the tournament shifted earlier in the schedule to March. It seems like no big deal, but the wind is heavier and often blows in a non-traditional direction. The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass doesn’t give many consistent trends, but there are two to note:
1. No English born player has ever won The PLAYERS Championship
2. Course history for players is a non-factor
Tiger Woods has seemed to bow out of his belief that he will play once a month this year. It’s disappointing that he’s missing the singular biggest event on the schedule and is the staple of the Tour.
Vegas Favorites – Is there really a true favorite on a course like this?
- Scottie Scheffler (+600) – There’s no question that Scottie is the #1 player in the world right now. And last week during his win at Bay Hill, he actually showed some putting prowess, while donning a new mallet putter. In 3 appearances at TPC Sawgrass, he has a missed cut, 55th and a win. No one is hotter than Scottie right now, but at +600 on a course that really doesn’t favor any specific player, betting him to win 2 weeks in a row and defend his title seems like a tall test.
- Rory McIlroy (+1100) – Lots of appearances at TPC Sawgrass, but since the tournament moved to March, Rory has a win, 33rd and 2 missed cuts. He’s playing consistent golf right now. At +1100, I like the golden boy and face of the Tour to play well this week.
- Patrick Cantlay (+2000) – Fade, fade and fade again. 4 appearances since 2019 and has 3 MC’s and 1 Top 20.
- Viktor Hovland (+2000) – If anyone is trending towards a win at Sawgrass, Hovland fits the bill. In 2023, he earned a 3rd place finish, which bested his previous best of 9th. His form isn’t great right now as compared to what we saw last year, but at 20:1, that’s worth a sprinkle.
Who else has a legitimate chance?
- Xander Schauffele – Like Cantlay, he has the exact same history (MC, MC, MC, 19th) – FADE!
- Justin Thomas – JT just seems like a guy that can and should win this tournament. He’s playing good golf and hasn’t missed a cut here in 5 years, which is rare for most. Give me JT at +2200 this week.
- Will Zalatoris – Willy Z is hot right now. Coming off of major surgery in 2023, his form is a bit surprising. But the last two events, he has finished in the Top 5. He’s never missed a cut at Sawgrass, but he has regressed each appearance. I look for Will to challenge the lead at some point this week.
- Max Homa – Similar results to Hovland. Max is playing good golf and makes a lot of birdies.
- Hideki Matsuyama – Hideki finished 8th (2019), had the lead when Covid ended the tournament (2020), missed the cut in 2021, and then finished 5th last year. He’s playing fantastic golf this year and has a win within the last month. I’d sprinkle Hideki to win, or 1st Round leader.
Darts, anyone?
Shane Lowry – The Irishman likes to play in Florida. He’s finished 3rd and 4th the last two weeks and has very strong history at Sawgrass. Shane is a DFS lock this week and maybe a good bet for a round leader or sprinkle to win.
Tom Hoge – No missed cuts, and has 6 top 30s in his last 7 weeks. By the way, he almost won it here last year.
