Each year, there are four major golf championships that take place: The Masters, PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship. Each hold their own significance and history, however only one of these is hosted and played at the same venue and course each year. The Masters tournament began in 1934, and every year since patrons and professionals visit the historic Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia.
Since all of the other major championships are in a rotation of courses, or are played at strategically selected courses with no cycle, it’s much more difficult to predict and handicap the field. At The Masters, we are at the luxury of having each players historical data, during the same year over year timeframe, at the same exact venue. This is why The Masters is easier to predict than other majors.
Here are some takeaways to consider before we dive into the trends:
- History matters here more than any other major.
- A long-shot or first timer is very unlikely to win.
- Recent form and winning experience is significant.
- Tee to Green stats are important.
- Elite putting is not required
- Good drives are rewarded heavily – by making the 2nd shot more simple.
- Par 5 scoring is essential
- Around The Green short game needs to be elite
Here are the winner trends to review for the 2024 Masters Tournament:
1. 44 of the last 44 winners had played in at least 1 Masters Tournament
2. 18 of the last 18 winners were not the betting favorite for the week
3. 25 of the last 26 winners made the cut the year prior
4. 24 of the last 26 winners had finished 30th or better in a previous Masters appearance
5. 23 of the last 26 winners finished 38th or better the year before they won
6. 56 of the last 59 winners did repeat as Masters Champion
7. 22 of the last 24 winners were ranked in the Top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings
8. 13 of the last 15 winners had at least 4 previous professional wins
9. 13 of the last 15 winners had won a tournament in the U.S. within the last two years
10. 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the Top 6 of a major within the last two years
11. 13 of the last 14 winners had at least 1 Top 8 in the 7 events leading up to The Masters
12. 12 of the last 12 winners had gained at least 18 stores T2G in the four events prior
13. 11 of the last 14 winners finished 35th or better in their last start
14. 14 of the last 14 winners ranked inside the Top 30 in Strokes Gained: T2G that season
15. 14 of the last 16 winners ranked outside the Top 50 for the season in SG: Putting
16. 14 of the last 15 winners ranked inside the Top 50 for Driving Distance in that season
17. 10 of the last 11 winners had gained at least 0.25 strokes per round “around the green” in the last 16 rounds leading up to the Masters
18. 12 of the last 14 winners ranked inside the Top 40 for the season in “Par 5 scoring” in the year leading up to The Masters
19. 12 of the last 15 winners ranked inside the Top 40 for the season in “Going for the Green” in the year leading up to The Masters
20. 18 of the last 21 winners were aged 27 and older
So what does all of this mean? Who fits the trends this year?
Three players fit 17 of the 20 trends:
- Rory McIlroy
- Si Woo Kim
- Cameron Young
Four players fit 18 of the 20 trends:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Jon Rahm
- Hideki Matusyama
- Tony Finau
One player first 19 of the 20 trends:
- Xander Schauffele
Weather Forecast - Augusta, Georgia
Only time will tell if the trends continue. But one thing is for certain. The trends have significance and I won’t be ignoring any of the 8 players that fit these trends the most.
