Chasing Victory at Innisbrook: Who Will Rise in Scheffler's Absence at the Valspar Championship?
There’s good news this week for the PGA Tour players in the field at the Valspar Championship: Scottie Scheffler is taking the week off. After two weeks and two victories, Scheffler is very clearly the #1 ranked golfer in the world – and it might not even be close. Barring injury or illness, I don’t foresee any situation where Scottie isn’t the odds on favorite to win any tournament he enters. Can he win a 2nd Green Jacket in Augusta next month? Time will tell… But for now, Innisbrook is calling. Time to decide who can withstand the Snake Pit and claim the trophy in Tampa.
VEGAS FAVORITES:
Xander Schauffele (+700) – Last week, Xander had the 54-hole lead and held it much of the day. After faultering in the home stretch, he finished T-2. With only one appearance at the Valspar (12th in 2022), it’s tough to see where he lands this week. Is he deflated from not winning the Players? Or will it inspire a big week again? He’s in good form, but I don’t think he does it this week. His SG approach lacks in comparison to some of the field.
Sam Burns (+1200) – If you only get one player to bet for a winner, Sam Burns is the one you’ll be taking. Course history just oozes good things: Two wins and a 6th in the last 3 years here. He’s also been playing very well in 2024. Seems like an auto-bet for Top 25, Top 10, Top 5 and 1st. But as we all know, repeating year to year on the Tour is HARD!
Justin Thomas (+1400) – After a missed the cut at the Players, I like this as a bounce-back spot for Thomas. In six starts at Innisbrook, JT has finished 10, 3, 13, MC, 18, 10. He will likely take one of the next two weeks off and then head to Augusta. This is an important week for JT to find something. And besides, outside of two missed cuts at the Genesis and Players this year (concerning because they’re the two biggest weeks thus far), Thomas has four finishes of 12th or better.
CONTENDERS OR PRETENDERS:
Cameron Young (+2800) - Young is a first timer at Copperhead, although he has played the Florida Swing very well and is absolutely striping the irons. His game fits the course really well because it’s such a difficult tee-to-green test. Long irons and approach are demanding and that’s where he excels. CONTENDER!
Brian Harman (+1800) – Harman is playing as consistent as can be when it comes to making cuts and cashing checks. After a great showing at the Players (T-2), he has to continue it this week, right? Right!? WRONG. I can’t get past his course history… In the last 9 tries, he has six missed cuts. I’m not putting my money on that volatility.
Keegan Bradley (+3500) – Keegan has fared pretty well here historically. He has gotten off to fast starts but faltered on the weekends. He could be a fun 1st Round Leader prop bet, or even a Top 10 bet.
LONGSHOTS:
Doug Ghim (+4500) – After two early missed cuts in January, Ghim has been golfing his ball really darn good. His last five starts: T-13, T-12, T-8, T-16, and T-16. Last year, he finished just outside the Top 25 here. The two attributes that Innisbrook demands are things Ghim does very well at: Strokes Gained: Approach (13th) and Driving Accuracy (12th).
Sam Ryder (+9500) – Like Ghim, Sam Ryder had a few early MC’s to start the 2024 season. Since then he has finished 21st and 16th. Maybe a little Florida sunshine and sunburn was all he needed? Last year, Ryder finished 19th at Innisbrook. Ryder is consistent with some important stats:11th in driving accuracy and he’s Top 40 in Strokes Gained: Approach. His putting is a concern, but when you’re hot, you’re hot.
