Is there anything better? I genuinely ask that. The warmth of Spring, the Azaleas in full bloom, the perfectly manicured grass, and most of all the golf. Magnolia Drive is officially open today and the 89 players are making their way in to practice. If you have never been, I pray that you get the chance. It’s Disney for Dads, but on steroids. There’s no parcel of land in America that is better. You cannot convince me otherwise. It’s also the start of Major Championship golf season. I love to lay some coin down and watch all of the shots from Thursday through Sunday. Let’s prepare for the 88th edition of The Masters with some of my bets I like this week!
Favorites:
Scottie Scheffler (+400) – At his current odds, that’s the lowest anyone has been since Tiger Woods in 2013, rightfully so. Scottie is the best player in the world right now and it’s not even close. Recently, he began working with putting guru Phil Kenyon. It appears to be paying dividends as he’s strokes on the in three consecutive starts. His finishes in those three events: WIN, WIN, T2. Scottie has 8 Top 10s in the last 11 major championships. To say all systems are firing would be an understatement. He’s also never missed a cut here – 4/4 with finishes of 10th, 1st, 18th and 19th. We know with certainty that his ball striking will be “on.” But if his putter continues the way it’s been the last 5 weeks, this tournament could be over by the weekend.
Rory McIlroy (+1000) – This year marks the 10th opportunity that Rory has had to complete the career Grand Slam, which solidifies his place in golf history even more-so than he already has. He has not won a major in general in nearly a decade. He win’s a lot of events around the world: PGA Tour events, Ryder Cups, and even FedEx Cups… But the resume is missing the one he wants the most: The Masters. Rory has played a lot of golf in comparison to previous years. Good things are showing up, especially the low finish at Valero this past week. Last week, Rory spoke about spending some time with Butch Harmon recently. His approach stats (his weakness) were much better last week. But can Rory overcome the mental demons at Augusta? He wants it. He wants it real bad. And frankly, his game fits the course perfectly (see the countless Top 10s here). But unfortunately, there’s a lot of pressure on him to complete the Grand Slam, even if no one is really talking about it.
Jon Rahm (+1200) – The 2023 Champion and current LIV golfer returns to a full-field event for the first time in 2024. Rahm has been one of the best players in golf for a half of a decade at least. This year, he took the bag and went to LIV Golf. He didn’t take as much heat as others did – probably because Rory is obsessed with the Ryder Cup and knows he needs Jon there if they ever want to win. Rahm has 7 appearances, 7 made cuts, 7 Top 30s, 5 Top 10s and 1 win at Augusta. Is that good? Recenty form suggests he’s playing o.k. by his standards (5 Top 10s with LIV), but he hasn’t won. Can he repeat at Augusta? Or will his Basque Champions Dinner Menu weigh him down, along with the guilt of leaving the PGA Tour.
Brooks Kopeka (+1600) – It really does just feel like it’s only a matter of time until Brooks dons the green jacket. Last week, he said he feels like he’ll win one, because statistically it’s the easiest of the four majors to win. And if you didn’t know, he’s pretty damn good at major championship golf. He isn’t playing great at the moment, but I’m not sure it matters. He knows and loves the course. He has SEVENTEEN Top 7 or better in his majors career – which includes 5 wins.
Who has the course history on their side?
There are a few guys teeing it up that seemingly just play well here year in, and year out. I could understand any of these guys being your pick this week. I do like to look at current form, but course history is really important when wagering on: 1st Place, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 40, Made Cut or even Missed Cut.
Hideki Matsuyama is injured. I know he’s playing well (12th, 6th and 7th in the last 5 weeks), but rumors are swirling. Can his body withstand the hills of ANGC? A past champion, he has what it takes. He hasn’t finished worse than 32nd here in 9 years, but he also only has 3 Top 10s in 10 years. He seems like a sure-fire lock bet to make the cut, place Top 40 or place Top 20.
Jordan Spieth will be a popular bet, as always. From 2014 to 2018, he finished: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 11th and 3rd. Then he cooled down, only to warm back up a bit (3rd, MC, 4th). A crazy analytical golf nerd of sorts, he lives for Augusta National. After two recent missed cuts, he found some form and finished 10th at the Valero. It just feels like you always need to throw a few down on a guy like him, whether it’s a high odds bet of Top 40, or throwing a dart at a win or Top 5.
How about Will Zalatoris? Two trips and two Top 10s.
How about Cameron Smith? 4 Top 10s in 7 trips.
How about Justin Thomas? Perfect game for ANGC, but somehow only has two Top 10s in 8 trips.
Or what about that guy, Dustin Johnson? Past champion, 5 Top 10s in the last decade.
There are a lot of players who can win the Masters. But let’s talk about who are the pretenders? Who are we fading this week?
Rickie Fowler. First of all, I love Rickie. I really, really do. He has not played here since 2020 due to poor results. He finally won last Summer which got him back into the field. But his game just isn’t there right now. Zero Top 25s in 2024. Odds are up to +10000. I’d love to see Rickie make a run for the jacket, but I just don’t see it this year.
Gary Woodland. Heck of a story seeing Gary back on Tour after a brain tumor. Incredibly courageous and inspiring. However, his history here is a wave of decent and bad. I’d have to error on more downs this week after a tough start to 2024 on the course.
Danny Willet. He may finish dead last this week. He hasn’t teed it up in a tournament since September 2023. Aside from his win here in 2016, he has 5 missed cuts in 8 trips.
Tiger Woods… I’m really sorry, Tiger. As much as I will be cheering for you every step of the way this week, for the first time in my life, I’m going to say it out loud. “Tiger Woods cannot win this week.” I did it. I hate it. But I said it. He’s completed just two 72-hole official tournaments since the car accident 39 months ago. That’s just way, way too little golf for anyone to be ready to compete here. Yes, I know he won the 2019 Masters. However, he did it after he teed it up 18x in 2019 and 5 times in 2019. He claimed he was going to try to play once a month in 2024. Did something happen physically at Riviera, or afterwards? He WD due to the flu at The Genesis. There is very little evidence that he’ll complete all four rounds this week. However, if he makes the cut, he’d set a new Masters record by making his 24th consecutive cut. I’ll bet him to make the cut, because I have to support our guy.
Who are the long shots who I could see winning?
Dare I say Phil Mickelson? I mean, he did finish 2nd last year here. He’s playing poor golf right now, but putting is key this week – and he’s working with the “world’s best greens reader” as his caddie this week. That would be quite the scene seeing Phil win, wouldn’t it?
Russell Henley is a guy that I can see contending this week. He’s a Georgia boy with solid history here. He finished 4th last year and hasn’t missed a cut here in 10 years. He also has two Top 5s in his last 3 tournaments in 2024. At +6600, he’s worth some money in some scenario.
Shane Lowry is playing very well in 2024. But more importantly, he has 4 straight Top 25s at Augusta, including a Top 3. I don’t know if he’ll win, but I can see him contend a bit.
A few other guys that I think could throw a low round of the day in: Keegan Bradley, Sepp Straka, Min-Woo Lee, and Sung-jae Im.
Enjoy the show! The Masters coverage used to be abysmal. Now, you can customize your coverage in the app, as well as watch players from sun up to sun down. Can’t wait!
